2010年12月12日日曜日

Thoughts upon global warming

Hearing a news telling COP16 ended in postponing to reach an agreement upon post-Kyoto, some thoughts hit upon my mind. Why Japan is said to be messed up the discussion about reaching such agreement and reasons.

First of all, behind the claim that Japan did not allow pure extension of current Kyoto protocol is that they believe the consequence would be very limited without participation of the US and China. While current binded countries emit 27% of world's total emission of CO2, China and the US emit 41% of total CO2 emission. This was one of the main claim that Japan refused the pure extension of Kyoto protocol.

Another aspect of Japan's refusal seems to have something to do with carbon credit through CDM scheme. With carbon price being €18 and emission reduction target 6% compared to 1990 level, Japan has to buy $1T approximately. Due to capability for implementing CDM projects in China, most of the CDM project are done in there, 35.1% of total CDM projects. Japan, having great access geographically and right technology to carry projects, several CDM projects are being done and being planned today. However, due to the fact of Chinese government tightened the procedure of allowing such projects, which enabled to make a scheme to pay to Chinese government for the reduced carbon credit. This means, that Japan is not only investing for the facility for carbon credit but also paying Chinese government extra amount of money for the credit. Furthermore, to the fact that CER not proving several CDMs due to tighter criterion,  Japanese government needs to purely buy the certificate from eastern European nations which holds extra certificate.

The last point of reason of Japan refusing continuing Kyoto protocol is of its base year for reduction target. While Japan had relatively low emission even in 1990s, European nation had capability of reducing their CO2 due to  the collapse of eastern bloc economies as well as Britain's transition to natural gas for non-climate reasons, which was already seen by the time of the negotiation was held, 1997. Since then on, Japan's emission had flattened compared to the fact that European countries increased 8%.
(ref: http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2010/12/why_japan_disowned_kyoto.shtml) Last year, Japan claimed to use 2005 level of emission as a basis for binding reduction target and was seeking for it to be as global basis for reduction target. This is due to the fact that emission level of that date, in terms of emission per capita,  is basically flattened among major developed nation. Therefore, simple extension using same base year of reduction target is highly heavy burden.

For the bottom line, Japanese refusal of Kyoto protocol extension is from the fact of less impact for actual global warming and being as a total loser of the scheme, both financially and economically.

But the fact of assumption by IPCC in 2001 made me confident of the reason that actual agreement was not been reached. They assume stabilization of CO2 can be reached by allowing moderate CO2 emission for a while and requires substantial reduction around 2030. I actually did not know this assumption until today. The main reason of hurrying for next agreement seems to be mainly due to economics.